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Upper Cumberland Region

Covid-19 Epidemiologic Charts and Tables



US Data Source:  https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/blob/master/us-counties.csv

Tennessee Data Source:  https://www.tn.gov/health/cedep/ncov/data/downloadable-datasets.html

Epidemiologic data analysis by James C. Gray MD, Secretary of the Upper Cumberland Medical Society.


Snapshot Date February 14, 2021


The Upper Cumberland region received its first shipment of vaccine on December 18 and delivered the first doses to arms on December 19.


CHART 1: There has been an abrupt flattening of the cumulative death curve since Feb 5.


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Chart 2 This reflects a precipitous drop in reported deaths since Feb 5.  This graph shows the number of UCR deaths reported for the 14 days prior.


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CHART 3 In this chart the number of deaths reported for the past 7 days was divided by the number of cases reported the past 7 days and expressed as a percent.  The number of deaths per 100 cases reported increased from 1% un July and August to over 4% in Feb. 



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CHART 1&3:  Graphs illustrating the cumulative deaths (Chart 1) and the Chart showing the percent deaths-to-cases are superimposed. There are multiple factors leading to this including a reporting slow-down during and catching up following the holidays, and the shift from testing to immunizations.  More importantly though is getting nursing home and elderly population immunized.  The 4-fold rise in reported deaths-to-cases is a reminder to continue testing, reporting and following CDC guidelines to reduce preventable deaths until everyone has been immunized.





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CHART 4:  Testing and reporting of both cases and deaths have declined since Feb 5. However, the reported death-to-case ratio has increased since Dec 18.  392 deaths have occurred in 10,692 cases in the 72 days to Feb 28 for a death to case rate of 3.7%.  The overall death to case rate is 826 deaths in 42,489 cases for an overall rate of 1.9%. There has been an average of 5.44 deaths/day since the vaccine has become available.  CDC and NIH continues to recommend that everyone continue to wear masks when indoors with people that do not live in the same household.


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Currently all county health departments in the UCR are scheduling COVID-19 vaccinations by phone. They are getting the vaccine out as soon as the vaccine arrives.  If you are eligible call now to get on the list. 


Putnam County has an online registration site at https://putnamcountytn.gov/vaccine .  Putnam County residents may register online to register for either the first or second dose.  Registrants will be notified when vaccine is available.



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